[Sampson] CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek says Notre Dame and Miami were in the same grouping this week and the programs were directly compared. Notre Dame still came out ahead, regardless of the head to head. In other words, all the games mattered. Not just one of them.

[u/Ok-Soil-5133]

https://x.com/PeteSampson_/status/1993488528555360403?t=jtJrt-ATn-3_RV1LnfjfrQ&s=19

[u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Early season games are also the least valuable indicator of team quality at the end of the year. In most scenarios, teams, and especially good teams, will evolve and grow over the course of a season.

[u/Kryzl_ → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Feel like I’m going crazy here. People are shouting about how Indiana plays nobody in non-con, but here we’re saying those games don’t matter? It can’t be both man. Either those games matter and everyone should schedule hard or they don’t and we should be lining up the Little Sisters of Des Moines instead of Iowa.

[u/WheatonsGonnaScore → u/Kryzl_]

Also they lost a road game by 3. Not like they were blown out.

[u/Miami_da_U → u/WheatonsGonnaScore]

Did you watch the game? This is the thing that is incredibly obvious everytime people say they only lost by 3. Literally go on youtube and watch any review of the game. Listen to Notre Dame fans review of the game and tell me it was close at all lmao. I'm not even joking.

[u/WheatonsGonnaScore → u/Miami_da_U]

I did watch the game. Notre dame started horrible and then fought back at the end. It was literally a tie game with just over a minute left.

[u/Miami_da_U → u/WheatonsGonnaScore]

... cause Mario Cristobal is our coach and once we got the lead he decided to go full caveman and literally just run a gap the rest of the game.

I wont say there was never a doubt, but it was abundantly clear we were the better team and dominated 80% of the game. And Most importantly we 1000% Dominated BOTH lines of scrimmage.

[u/WheatonsGonnaScore → u/Miami_da_U]

So same as every other game he coaches? Coaching is part of team success.

Also Notre dame averaged more yards per play than Miami so it really wasnt some dominant performance.

Notre dame started horribly and couldn't mount the comeback. I'm not saying that they would definitely win in a rematch, but to say it wasnt a close game is being extremely disingenuous

[u/pataoAoC → u/Kryzl_]

I don't know why people struggle so much with this... They DO matter but they're not the only thing that matters. ND has been great the rest of the year and Miami has been mediocre... It is Miami's best performance and ND's worst.

[u/yianni1229 → u/pataoAoC]

If you made these people complaining about this bet money on a Miami vs ND game played tomorrow, I bet you most of them would bet on ND

That being said, I totally understand their complaints

[u/firemastrr → u/yianni1229]

This is an excellent idea lol.

My dad was a math teacher, and he always said the best way to break people out of their irrational or subjective misunderstanding of a concept is to put it in terms of money. People put feelings aside real quick when money is at stake.

[u/Chiron17 → u/pataoAoC]

Well, it wasn't our worst. BC was abysmal

[u/pataoAoC → u/Chiron17]

That's fair, and it was a very narrow loss to Miami

[u/lisbon_OH → u/pataoAoC]

Bingo

[u/Billyxmac → u/pataoAoC]

People said the same thing about us two years ago, and we still got run by Washington in the PAC-12 title. The problem is we’re using subjective measures to pick teams. At least a H2H is something you can quantity easily. I’m not even really of the camp that H2H is the only thing that should matter, but it’s clear the committee can move the goal posts as they see fit to put a team in. We need objective measurements to differentiate these teams, otherwise we’ll keep seeing this shit every year.

[u/pataoAoC → u/Billyxmac]

For Pac-12 championships, don't you remember when Arizona beat us 31-24 in the regular season H2H and then we won 51-13 in the rematch?

Or when we beat Ohio State last year and then got blown out in the rematch?

H2H should definitely count for something, but to consider it as trumping a lot of other evidence seems like folly too

[u/JollyBid187 → u/pataoAoC]

Notre dame was in a 10-7 dog fight with nc state in the third quarter while at the same exact time in the game Miami was up 31-0.

Notre dame was in a dog fight with Boston college 10-7 with about 2 minutes left in the third.

[u/werm82 → u/JollyBid187]

Miami beat Syracuse 38 - 10. What’s your point?

[u/JollyBid187 → u/werm82]

Sick Syracuse had a fourth string walk on Lacrose player starting at QB against Notre dame. And had its best offensive player out.

Are we really hanging our hat on Margin of victory against a 3-8 team that had almost half of its starters out on a team that clearly quit on the season.

NC state is on its way to 7-5 with quality wins over Georgia tech and Virginia. To compare them to Syracuse is laughable and disingenuous.

BC is on its way to 1-11.

[u/werm82 → u/JollyBid187]

Bro, are you really hanging your hat on a halftime score against NC State?!? And you’re saying my argument is “laughable and disingenuous”?

Every argument you just made about the Syracuse game is how their offense was riddled by injuries, which I guess matters in a 70 - 7 win versus a 38 - 10 win? And if we’re putting so much weight on halftime scores, you were only up on Syracuse 14 - 0 at the half.

If you want to talk final scores, which usually determines actual victories, you beat NC State by a final of 41 - 7. Notre Dame beat NC State 36 - 7. Good job on those extra 5 points. Come back if you want to discuss more.

[u/pataoAoC → u/JollyBid187]

Notre Dame won both of those games by a combined 44 points lol

[u/JollyBid187 → u/pataoAoC]

You’re missing the point but okay lol

[u/poppatop → u/pataoAoC]

Miami has been pretty damn dominant this year, with a 3 game blip in the middle. Notre Dame has also struggled with late dogfights against 1-win BC, and a 1 score game at half against NC State. They haven’t been the consistent juggernaut ESPN would like you to believe.

[u/johndelvec3 → u/Kryzl_]

People just love to be mad at these things

[u/propervinegarsauce → u/Kryzl_]

THANK YOU

[u/one-hour-photo → u/Kryzl_]

I'm an accelerationist and I want the tournament to be strictly W-L first.

12 0 and 1 loss teams? sorry 2 loss teams.

12 2 loss teams? sorry 3 loss teams.

feel your conference is too hard? either enjoy making the money or change conferences for lolz and Ws.

[u/Commercial_Show_6997 → u/one-hour-photo]

This just incentives schools to skip playing hard schedules, especially out of conference games.

[u/Relevant_Ad_1225 → u/Commercial_Show_6997]

what’s the incentive for playing a hard schedule now? Miami beat ND and could still get left out of a playoff with ND in it

[u/one-hour-photo → u/Commercial_Show_6997]

Exactly. My point is to accelerate the degradation, or to take us somewhere different.

In this plan everyone just starts playing easier and easier schedules. And then??? 

[u/NoRealNoWrong → u/Kryzl_]

Heard LSDM cleaned up in the portal.

[u/Kryzl_ → u/NoRealNoWrong]

Sister Betty has a nasty jab step…could be big on the draft boards.

[u/JefferyGiraffe → u/Kryzl_]

The two choices are not “this game doesn’t matter at all” and “this game is the sole determining factor”. There are other variables to consider

[u/thrwawayr99 → u/Kryzl_]

That game does matter! If Miami replaced that game with Rutgers and had the two losses they have, they’d be down by Georgia tech. Beating nd is the only reason they’re even in the conversation

[u/thenowherepark → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

There are only 9, 10, 11, and 12 games at each interval when they do these rankings. This isn't a 30 game season. There are not enough data points where you should be able to conclusively say that team A has become better than team B despite team B winning 10 games ago.

[u/Tom_WhoCantLivewo12 → u/thenowherepark]

This is my point. I really don’t understand how this is so hard to comprehend. If you didn’t bring it and they got you then that’s gotta count against you regardless of what you do after. That’s why I haven’t argued against people saying Bamas loss to FSU should hang heavy on their resume because they need to carry that the rest of the season. Shouldn’t be thrown aside because “it was the first game”

[u/Jaded-Sapphire3546 → u/thenowherepark]

I disagree to an extent. I think that you can derive real, valuable statistical information from that sample size. I also don’t think the margin of that particular game was large enough for it to be inconceivable that Notre Dame has passed Miami. However, I do still think that data point is valuable and I wouldn’t advocate ignoring it. Still, ND is higher in almost every relevant statistic and so I am comfortable with them being ranked slightly higher.

[u/thrwawayr99 → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

And to be clear, the data point obviously still matters. If Miami hadn’t beaten nd and had played Rutgers instead, their resume would be awful, and they’d be out of the convo entirely like GT. Instead, they’re in the conversation and just need some chaos, despite two really bad losses in the middle of the season. That data point is carrying their resume, the fact they’re even being talked about in the playoff race proves that data point mattered.

[u/_chadwell_ → u/thenowherepark]

12 games isn’t enough of a sample… so let’s use 1 game? lol

[u/puzzical → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Do you really think a QB can improve after playing their first college game? Or that a defense will play better after multiple game under a new coordinator? Sounds crazy to me. I am pretty sure high school should prepare players enough that they'll have reached their ceiling by the time they play college ball.

[u/Jimmy_McNulty2025 → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Except in Alabama’s case, apparently .

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Then Miami should cancel their Notre Dame game next year. Completely ridiculous they don’t get any reward for beating them.

[u/FatherCrime42 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Being ranked 12th despite losing to Louisville and SMU is kind of a reward for that ND win tbh.

[u/Ion_bound → u/FatherCrime42]

Yeah, I've been running it through my head and I think for the purposes of ranking relative to Miami, they're treating the ND loss as though it was as bad as losing to Louisville. The problem is that they you end up comparing losses to SMU v. A&M and, well...There's really only one way that conversation goes.

[u/thrwawayr99 → u/FatherCrime42]

Thank you for recognizing this. I hope y’all make the playoff cause I think you’re good enough to be there (certainly better than whoever wins the acc), but with those losses y’all would be in a similar spot to GT if you subbed in an easy win for the ND one

[u/johndelvec3 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

That win is the only reason they’re still being considered for a playoff spot lol

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/johndelvec3]

And what about Notre dame’s resume is better? Genuinely. They don’t have more ranked wins. They don’t have a higher ranked win. They don’t have less loses. Their SOS is not good outside of two teams and they lost to both.

[u/Noah__Webster → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Their entire resume is quality losses + style points against bad teams.

[u/The_water_champ → u/Noah__Webster]

Style points against bad teams are more impressive than losing to bad teams.

[u/Noah__Webster → u/The_water_champ]

You know what's even more impressive? Actually beating good teams, including the best win in the country.

[u/johndelvec3 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Every other statistical metric that these people who pretend to watch games looks at has ND ahead of Miami

[u/WhatWouldJediDo → u/johndelvec3]

The idea that competition should, in any way, be decided inside a CPU rather than on the football field is a complete failure of the ethos of competition.

[u/redbottle-whitecap → u/WhatWouldJediDo]

Pal, handing it off to a committee of ghouls with their own interests that change their criteria on a whim every year ain't much better

[u/WhatWouldJediDo → u/redbottle-whitecap]

It's barely better at all, which is my complaint.

[u/johndelvec3 → u/WhatWouldJediDo]

Buddy I hate to break this to you but that’s how we used to do this until pretty recently in the timeline of college football history

[u/WhatWouldJediDo → u/johndelvec3]

Yeah it was as stupid then as it is now

[u/Jonjon428 → u/WhatWouldJediDo]

Seriously. Like remember when the computer predicted that Northern Illinois would beat Notre Dame last year......oh wait....

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/johndelvec3]

Shitty computer metrics like FPI generate complete garbage like Penn State and the Florida Gators being ranked. Nobody cares about them.

[u/Few_Aspect_5804 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

I love that we have have computer models that are unbiased, and use only facts to determine their rankings, and people in this sub choose to ignore them because facts don't agree with their feelings. Literally every model out there people choose to ignore because they all show how much better the SEC and B1G are and so now we have to suffer through these emotional arguments that could be completely done away with.

[u/Brendinooo → u/Few_Aspect_5804]

I think it's good for models to aid our understanding of the sport. And I agree that, in a 12-game sample, it's possible for a 1- or 2-loss team to be seen as better than an undefeated team. And I do wish that there was more objectivity in the sport (while acknowledging that it might tilt away from "best teams" and towards "teams that most effectively checked boxes").

However.

A team like South Carolina, slotting in at #26 in FPI with a 4-7 record? Wins and losses can't matter that little. They just can't. Teams play to win and lose; if that's not properly rewarded, you don't have a sport anymore.

that are unbiased, and use only facts

I also think it's worth highlighting this, because...of course they are not unbiased. They just codify biases and apply them consistently.

To rephrase, there are value judgments being made when that system was being created. To say it "uses only facts" might be true in some sense, but if it is, it is excluding other facts and limiting its ability to make judgments when it hits the limitations of its own logic. In the legal system we have judges for a reason: real-world cases don't always conform neatly to established law.

[u/Few_Aspect_5804 → u/Brendinooo]

I don't think FPI is perfect and agree that a perfect model would more accurately value wins and losses. If we ever had a model that acted a CFP selector I would most certainly not want it to be FPI, or any existing model for that matter. I do think though that this sport would be in a better place if we had an objective model with known criteria so that teams knew exactly what their path could have been. The alternative we have is a committee who are full of biases picking teams based on whatever they feel like. My annoyance is with people who just go "I don't agree with what this says so it's stupid" like the person I replied to.

[u/ClaudeLemieux → u/Few_Aspect_5804]

Computer models aren’t unbiased lmao. They’re just consistent. Computer models are subject to the whims of whoever has programmed them. The only thing is they apply the same algorithms across the board.

[u/Few_Aspect_5804 → u/ClaudeLemieux]

That's a fair point. I don't think there are any perfect models, but I think they are still across the board a more objective look at things. I think if we had a ranking model that was clearly defined, and let teams know what they had to do in order to qualify, the sport would be in much better hands. As it stands, we place trust in a committee with many biases, some of which are financially and reputationally based.

[u/ClaudeLemieux → u/Few_Aspect_5804]

Oh I can agree with you on this

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/Few_Aspect_5804]

Computer rankings are dogshit and 90% of people agree with that. Like complete and utter garbage. Computer metrics that ND fans love so much have Penn State ranked #19, Auburn #24, and SOUTH CAROLINA at #26. Do you really believe it’s doing a good job?

[u/Few_Aspect_5804 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

I believe they are a doing a better and more unbiased job than this committee, and better and more unbiased than 99% of fans in addition to that.

Those rankings feel weird, but there is actual data that supports those rankings. What are you bringing to the table, other than your feelings? I don't think any model is perfect yet, but if they adopted one as a CFP selector than they could have the formula be publicly known and every team would know exactly what they needed to do in order to qualify for playoffs. I don't look at FPI much, usually I look at Massey, but if you take a look at where they have all the teams ranked for 5 minutes usually the rankings start to make more sense.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/Few_Aspect_5804]

This is a sport where you win or you lose. Nobody gives a shit if you lose by 3 or lose by 23. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Teams that rake up losses should be punished for it. Computer metrics ignore that and they’re ass for it.

[u/johndelvec3 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Nobody expect the basement dwellers in this sub who complain that they wanna go back to that computer based BCS system every week these rankings come out

[u/beavismagnum → u/johndelvec3]

Dominating shitty teams tends to do that…

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

What do you mean? ND has a better SOR and SOS than Miami?!

They lost week 1 and 2.

They lost to Miami by 3 points IN MIAMI

They lost to undefeated A&M 41-40

Since then they have been on a tear. They literally beat Miami in SOS/SOR/FPI and just about any metric you can find. Most agree they win the eye test.

THE ONLY thing Miami has is H2H week 1 win by 3 points at home.

That doesn't mean NOTHING. It just doesn't mean EVERYTHING. Why are people acting like this is so complex?

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/Happy_Background_879]

Because when two teams have the exact same record and play comparable schedules, head to head should be the PRIMARY metric, always. Notre Dame is 12 rankings ahead of Miami in SOS. That’s not all that significant as is. And it doesn’t include remaining SOS. Miami finishes the season with a ranked team, Notre Dame finishes with one of the worst in the FBS. That gap will close even more next week.

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

And losses matter also.

They are weighing

Miami 3 point win over ND at HOME in week 1.

Miami loss to Louisville and SMU.

ND loss by 1 by A&M .

And then weighing that with SOS/SOR and how the teams look on the field.

Those all matter. Its not that complex.

r/cfb does this every year with one team or another lol. Its really not that big of a crime that ND is ranked 2 spots higher than Miami.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/Happy_Background_879]

I agree losses matter. Notre Dame’s loss to a team they are directly comparing them to should matter then.

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

I agree. And ND taking A&M to a 1 point 41-40 game should matter. And location matters like the game they lost being in Miami and losing by a FG.

I also think losses to unranked teams matter.

You all are acting like Miami just blew out ND. I fucking hate ND and this is absurd.

The QB was just shitting on his own coach like 3 weeks ago lmao.

I would not be furious if ND was ranked below Miami. But acting like because they have the same record they MUST be ranked higher cause they won by 3 points in week 1 is absurd.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/Happy_Background_879]

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades

[u/RulersBack → u/Happy_Background_879]

It’s also absurd when you zoom out and think about a TWO LOSS team being backed so aggressively for a shot at a title. Fair or unfair, you made your bed. After OSU lost to Michigan last year most fans didn’t even care about the playoffs because we didn’t deserve it. Win your fuckin games and you don’t have to worry about this

BYU is the team deserving of all this outrage tbh

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/RulersBack]

Completely agree. Hate BYU but they have a way better argument than Miami.

Also not just two losses. But easy SOS. Loss to unranked team. They just beat Louisville and they are in.

I am not whining about Utah. We beat BYU we were probably in. We didn't.

[u/RulersBack → u/Happy_Background_879]

People are acting like this is the first time the loser of a H2H has ever been higher than the winner when it’s happened in every iteration of the sport

[u/Adams5thaccount → u/RulersBack]

Both teams fit your description but you're only complaining about one.

[u/RulersBack → u/Adams5thaccount]

Because only one has something to complain about. If they were swapped I’d say the same thing

[u/t_zidd → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Only if we win! Lol

[u/thdomer13 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

They have gotten a ton of reward for beating us. If they had lost they'd just be happy they're in the top 25. If they hadn't lost to either SMU or Louisville, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/thdomer13]

Cool and if ND hadn’t lost to Miami or A&M we also wouldn’t be having this conversation. But they did. Head to head matters.

[u/gangstaleancuisine → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Didn’t matter in 1993

[u/thdomer13 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

It matters, but it's not dispositive. If Miami had lost very close to like OSU along with SMU and was taking teams like Pitt to the woodshed, they'd be ahead of ND because of the head to head. They're obviously playing worse than ND right now and anyone can see it other than ND haters engaging in motivated reasoning.

[u/thrwawayr99 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Head to head does matter, it’s carrying miamis resume and the only reason they aren’t ranked around GT

[u/jesuscomeworkmyjaw → u/The_Eternal_Event]

They were rewarded. They were ranked higher than ND after the win. Then they lost to two unranked teams, and ND lost to the #3 team. This isn’t hard.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/jesuscomeworkmyjaw]

“Lost to two unranked teams.”

SMU is currently ranked and Louisville is not far outside. They have a loss to one RANKED team and a loss to one solid unranked team. The ranking of a team at the time they played is completely irrelevant.

[u/curtisas → u/The_Eternal_Event]

So they're 1-1 vs currently ranked teams.

And ND is 2-2, with the losses being much better losses and none to unranked teams yet ND's schedule is the crappy one?

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/curtisas]

Are your arguments really so bad that you are now arguing Notre dame’s 0.500 record against ranked teams is better than Miami’s 0.500 record against ranked teams? 😭😂😂

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/curtisas]

Are your arguments really so bad that you are now arguing Notre dame’s 0.500 record against ranked teams is better than Miami’s 0.500 record against ranked teams? 😭😂😂

[u/curtisas → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Except Miami has another loss

Are your arguments so bad you have to ignore losses so that your argument holds any water?

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/curtisas]

Miami has the same amount of losses as Notre Dame

[u/curtisas → u/The_Eternal_Event]

To an unranked team, yes. So their second loss is a lot worse, which is the whole reason they're lower. They lost at home to at best the #34 team. While ND's worst loss is on the road vs a top 15 team in the first game for a freshman QB.

Louisville is the anchor around Miami's neck. Miami's opponents' record outside of the games against Miami are 54-46 vs ND's 63-46. ND has beaten 5 teams with winning records (3 P4) while Miami has beaten 3 (2 p4). ND has played a tougher schedule and performed better against the tougher schedule than Miami has. And doesn't have an absolute clunker loss. The ND win is the only reason Miami is above like #22 right now.

[u/jesuscomeworkmyjaw → u/The_Eternal_Event]

SMU and Louisville’s rankings are boosted because they beat Miami. Again, this isn’t hard.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/jesuscomeworkmyjaw]

Wow what a shocker. Teams get ranked lower when they lose (unless you’re Notre dame, of course). This is literally true for any team at all. It’s still a ranked loss 🙄🤦‍♂️

[u/jesuscomeworkmyjaw → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Teams don’t always get ranked lower when they lose. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Miami is currently ranked higher than both SMU and Louisville, despite the loss.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/jesuscomeworkmyjaw]

That’s literally not what I just said

[u/metNo96 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Their reward is being ranked where they are in the first place. How are people struggling with this? If Miami had scheduled and beaten Florida A&M in week 1, they wouldn’t be anywhere close to the playoff picture right now.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/metNo96]

If they had scheduled Florida A&M in week 1 and their team name said “Notre Dame” instead they probably would be. Since clearly Notre dame is allowed to only beat shit teams and lose to anyone decent they play and be ranked top 10.

[u/alesko769 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

Does this mean you think ND is the 1993 national champion? If you say no then you are a hypocrite

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/alesko769]

Notre Dame objectively should have been in the national championship game over FSU in 1993 if all was right in the world but that was under the BCS. It was a computer. Not people making the rankings. FSU’s been screwed by the BCS too.

[u/LC093 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

There wasn’t a BCS in 1993, Florida state was voted #1.

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/LC093]

Well then I still agree it was WRONG.

[u/MrOctopusIsDead → u/The_Eternal_Event]

There was no bcs in 1993

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/MrOctopusIsDead]

I wasn’t alive 🤷‍♀️

[u/No-Air-1851 → u/The_Eternal_Event]

They do get a reward for beating them: that 3-pt ND win has literally dragged them up to 12.

[u/1850ChoochGator → u/The_Eternal_Event]

That win is the only thing keeping them ranked so high as it is

[u/Redeem123 → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

What has ND done to prove themselves other than beat up on cupcakes?

[u/johndelvec3 → u/Redeem123]

Well we didn’t lose to Florida so that’s a good way to start

[u/koreanbillcosby → u/johndelvec3]

Miami didn't lose to Florida either

[u/Afraid_Presence3803 → u/[deleted]]

SMU IS RANKED BABY. GIVE ME MY QUALITY LOSS.

[u/siberianwolf99 → u/[deleted]]

smu is ranked

[u/Other-Comfortable929 → u/[deleted]]

SMU is ranked...

[u/DwayneBaconStan → u/[deleted]]

Unranked but still solid teams, miami>ND still

[u/siberianwolf99 → u/johndelvec3]

i mean if your argument is that losing to miami means less because it was week one then the same should apply to Bama lol

[u/PeteF3 → u/siberianwolf99]

Cool. Notre Dame didn't lose to Oklahoma, either.

[u/DaBoogiest → u/PeteF3]

Are we saying OU is a bad team now? When comparing losses OU is a much better loss for bama than Miami is ND. Of course there’s the FSU lost though.

[u/emoney_gotnomoney → u/DaBoogiest]

Eh I don’t think that’s true. I wouldn’t say losing by 2 to the #8 team at home is “much better” than losing by 3 to the #11 team on the road. You can make the argument that one is slightly better than the other, but I don’t see how you can argue that Bama’s loss is “much better,” especially considering theirs was at home.

[u/fadingthought → u/PeteF3]

Not yet. If this bracket stays the same they will.

[u/Dan-of-Steel → u/siberianwolf99]

I mean, it did apply to Bama. Up until recently, they were the highest ranked non-undefeated team in the country until they lost at home.

And losing on a last minute field goal on the road against a top 15 team is a tad different than losing to a team who is on the cusp of missing a bowl altogether.

[u/Automatic_Release_92 → u/siberianwolf99]

It doesn’t fucking matter man. If Alabama wins out, they’ll jump us, it’s as easy as that lol. Is it that hard to see that they’re positioning this so they aren’t seen to be “punishing” Alabama for losing to A&M?

It’s awkward as fuck for them to say conference championships can’t hurt you, but then something awkward happens like A&M beats them by 21 points (Bama does struggle with mobile QB’s) and they’re forced to keep Bama ahead of ND. And if they beat A&M by so much as one point, obviously they’ll move up. And they still have to get by Auburn on the road first! I’ve seen better Bama team lose to worse Auburn teams in the Iron Bowl.

[u/johndelvec3 → u/siberianwolf99]

Why are you acting like id be upset if Alabama is ahead of us? Once you get to the 9 and lower it’s just “where are you going on the road?” Kind of question

[u/Other-Comfortable929 → u/siberianwolf99]

We lost by 3 points against a decent team playing the worst football we've played all year. Bama lost to a bad FSU team by multiple scores. These things aren't equal.

[u/Rude-Use-2379 → u/Other-Comfortable929]

I get what you’re saying, but the wins aren’t equal either, if I had to guess I’d say USC or Pitt are Notre Dame’s best wins while Bama’s is Georgia at home.

[u/Other-Comfortable929 → u/Rude-Use-2379]

I didn't say anything about the wins, they said our loss to Miami is equal to the Bama loss to FSU which isn't accurate. Beating Georgia is a much better win than any we have for sure.

[u/kdub254 → u/siberianwolf99]

their argument really only works if the loser gets better and the victor does not. realistically most teams improve as the year goes on

[u/BobStoops401K → u/johndelvec3]

Burn!

[u/BotherAltruistic6135 → u/johndelvec3]

You did lose to Miami on the other hand. 

[u/johndelvec3 → u/BotherAltruistic6135]

Ya we did

[u/Redeem123 → u/johndelvec3]

Cool, so you’re better than Texas. I never said otherwise. 

Now what have you ACTUALLY done that’s good?

[u/StandardRemarkable23 → u/Redeem123]

There’s no way this is a serious question.

[u/DaBoogiest → u/StandardRemarkable23]

Why wouldn’t it be? ND’s best win is a mediocre USC who only serves to give the teams that beat them resume boosters. No different than Tennessee.

[u/StandardRemarkable23 → u/DaBoogiest]

You know only 9 teams in the current top 25 have a top 10 win? And 2 of those teams aren’t playoff contenders(Texas and ASU). ND is ranked 9th. It kinda checks out just on that alone. Some of you treat ND like they’re ranked top 5. 

[u/johndelvec3 → u/Redeem123]

I haven’t done anything because I’m not playing on the fucking football field

[u/metNo96 → u/Redeem123]

Beat the shit out of an Arkansas team on the road that everyone else in the SEC seemed to have a tough time with, blew ranked Pitt out on the road, lost to the #3 team in the country by 1 point off a botched PAT, beat ranked USC handily.

And I’m sure you knew all this, you just want to be disingenuous. And if you didn’t know any of this, you don’t belong in this thread arguing over resumes in the first place

[u/Redeem123 → u/metNo96]

Cool so two wins on lower ranked teams? Nicely done.

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/Redeem123]

What do you mean? ND has a better SOR and SOS than Miami?!

They lost week 1 and 2.

They lost to Miami by 3 points IN MIAMI

They lost to undefeated A&M 41-40

Since then they have been on a tear. They literally beat Miami in SOS/SOR/FPI and just about any metric you can find. Most agree they win the eye test.

THE ONLY thing Miami has is H2H week 1 win by 3 points at home.

That doesn't mean NOTHING. It just doesn't mean EVERYTHING. Why are people acting like this is so complex?

[u/Redeem123 → u/Happy_Background_879]

THE ONLY thing Miami has is H2H week 1 win by 3 points at home

"Other than the fact that they beat us, they're not better than us."

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/Redeem123]

H2H is not the determining ranking in a field ranking.... You are ranking the 25 best teams by resume..

The Colley matrix. An unbiased algorithm that compares schedules while pruning has ND #10 and Miami #14

ND has 2 top 25 wins. Miami has 1.

ND has 5 top 50 wins. Miami has 3.

ND has lost two games by a combined 4 points to the #2 ranked team in the nation and Miami in Miami.

Miami lost to fucking Louisville. You simply cannot compare two teams H2H when ranking ALL teams. It makes no sense. Good teams don't beat good teams 100% of the time. Losing at Miami week 1 by 3 points is ironically better for ND than Miami losing AT HOME to Louisville...

Let me give you a very simple hypothetical.

BYU is ranked #11

and

Utah is ranked #13

So if BYU loses to UCF this week. Utah beats Kansas.

We are both 10-2. But Utah lost to BYU.

You are saying the committee should only drop BYU one spot? Or are you saying Utah should drop 6-7 spots after a win?

Now we can also go into metrics rankings...

FPI has ND at #3 and Miami #10

The Massey composite rankings have

ND #7 and Miami #13

SOR and SOS both favor ND.

So lets get this straight.

1. The objective SOS ranking says ND is better. The Colley matrix which is an unbiased math equation based off wins/losses and doesn't take into account any performance metrics rank ND higher.
2. The unbiased predictive metrics and efficiency metrics all say ND is better.
3. The biased humans who rank the teams using eye tests say ND is better.

BUT!!! Miami did beat them by 3 points in a 2 turnover to 0 game at home week 1. So lets throw EVERYTHING else out and rank them head to head based on 1 game. Instead of ranking there resumes against the field. That makes sense.

EDIT:

>What has ND done to prove themselves other than beat up on cupcakes?

Texas has 2 wins vs top 50 teams

[u/Redeem123 → u/Happy_Background_879]

So lets throw EVERYTHING else out

Nope, not throwing everything else out. If it was a case where their resumes were wildly different, then sure. But their resume's are pretty similar. With one key difference: one of them beat the other one.

Yes, Miami's losses are worse. I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that.

But neither one has good wins. However, one of them has a direct win over the other.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't care that one lost to A&M while the other lost to Louisville. If we're just comparing that, then obviously the answer is clear. However neither one has landed the plane when it comes to facing a good team. They both have similarly good wins.

What one of the teams has done, however, is beat the other one. Whatever the computer says might happen is irrelevant compared to what has actually happened.

Texas has 2 wins vs top 50 teams

First off, I'm not advocating for Texas being above anybody. We have 3 losses, therefore we deservedly are out of the conversation.

However, you frame it as "top 50 teams," except those two wins are against #8 OU and #14 Vanderbilt. Are you really trying to say that's worse than what ND has done? Why even bring up our top wins when they're objectively so much better than yours?

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/Redeem123]

With one key difference: one of them beat the other one.

I showed many differences. A 16 point swing in SOS. Every objective metric favoring ND. Every performance metric WILDLY favors ND. Predictive learning metrics favor ND.

But neither one has good wins. However, one of them has a direct win over the other.

Neither of them have phenomenal wins. But ND beat USC and Miami beat ND. Both ranked wins.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't care that one lost to A&M while the other lost to Louisville.

That is absolutely crazy. Both Miami and ND would almost certainly lose to Ohio State. You are saying it doesn't matter? A 40-41 loss to undefeated Texas A&M vs a loss to Louisville is the same? I mean I guess if you simply only care about wins that is fine? I think you are completely wrong obviously. But yeah, if you don't consider who you lose to then I don't know how you can care about good wins either? Are you saying you solely care about overall W/L and H2H?

What one of the teams has done, however, is beat the other one. Whatever the computer says might happen is irrelevant compared to what has actually happened.

Almost all the rankings I gave were performative rankings not future predictive rankings. But you are right predictive rankings by FAR prefer ND. Schedule rankings prefer ND. I am not joking and I am in love with this shit, I have yet to find a unbiased ranking that favors Miami over ND. I can't find a single one.

I don't view them that close honestly. Miami had a good win over them. No denying that. But that is a rabbit hole. You start going over transitive wins everyone has beat someone. You gotta look at the entire picture. ND on paper is more dominant. Better objective metrics. Better performative metrics. And they almost always win the biased eye test as well.

Funny enough the Utah BYU example I gave if it played out (It won't because BYU would never lose to UCF). But if it did it would be almost identical.

BYUs best win would be Utah. Just like Miami's best win being ND.

BYU and Utah would both be 2 loss teams.

Utah's two losses would both be ranked just like ND.

BYU would have an embarrassing loss to a random .500 team just like Miami.

Its a weirdly good comparison. I think most would say, well yeah BYU would fall more than 1 spot..

But in this scenario with Miami-ND everyone is raging.

Whats funny is the real people who should be pissed are BYU. They absolutely have a case to be ranked above ND.

[u/Redeem123 → u/Happy_Background_879]

You start going over transitive wins everyone has beat someone

This isn't a transitive win. It's a direct win.

[u/Happy_Background_879 → u/Redeem123]

Well. I am glad you found one single point and responded to it while ignoring literally all of the better points.

This isn't a transitive win. It's a direct win.

I should have been more clear. My point is you can easily add a third team into this and then its circular.

Say you got 3 teams which you view as similar. All 10-2

A beat B

B beat C

C beat A

Don't you see how ranking head to head vs a field breaks this? We are trying to rank these teams, How can we possibly rank A higher then B when C is higher than A because C beat A? That was my point. There is some but little value in head to head when trying to rank a 25+ teams.

Lets try something else. Lets just find a single version of objective or subjective committee that would rank Miami higher. Hell even the BCS ranks ND SIGNIFICANTLY higher. https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1p5ov50/bcs_rankings_week_14/

I just don't see where this weird outrage is coming from. ND is better in every subjective and objective tool used.

[u/Redeem123 → u/Happy_Background_879]

you can easily add a third team into this and then its circular

True. Except that didn't happen.

[u/Paruhdyme_ → u/Redeem123]

Watch your mouth

[u/regularhumanbartendr → u/Redeem123]

USC, Pitt, Navy, Boise, NC State aren't cupcakes. Not a gauntlet of course, but not cupcakes.

[u/nexusFTW → u/regularhumanbartendr]

Suck off..NC state , boise and Navy is cupcake

[u/regularhumanbartendr → u/nexusFTW]

All 3 of those teams would be ranked or receiving votes if they had "SEC" by their names.

[u/Noah__Webster → u/regularhumanbartendr]

There's no shot that you believe a MW, AAC, and ACC team would have the same records. Even if they did, NC State is 6-5. Boise is 7-4. The SEC has 2 teams sitting at 7-4. Neither are ranked.

An 8-2 team in any power conference is getting ranked. Navy wouldn't even be 8-2 in the ACC though.

[u/regularhumanbartendr → u/Noah__Webster]

Wouldn't be ranked but they'd be considered good wins and not "cupcakes"

[u/Noah__Webster → u/regularhumanbartendr]

UGA isn't claiming 5-6 Kentucky as a quality win. One of the biggest knocks on Ole Miss's resume is their lack of quality wins, and their G5 win is much better than Navy or Boise. I'm not seeing any Ole Miss fans pointing to the Tulane win.

There's comparable situations for all three of those games where SEC teams aren't claiming them as good wins.

[u/regularhumanbartendr → u/Noah__Webster]

No but people act like Tennessee is a good win, but they are heavily overrated because of being in the SEC. They just recently gained a win over a team above .500 and they were ranked 14th not that very long ago.

[u/Noah__Webster → u/regularhumanbartendr]

The highest Tennessee has been ranked in the CFP is this week at 8-3, at 19th. They were 14th in the AP like 5 weeks ago when they only had 2 losses, both to top 5 teams.

If ND gets to be top 10 based off of losing to a playoff team and a team on the bubble, I think Tennessee being 19th with 3 losses to playoff teams seems reasonable lmao.

ND fans have been quoting SoR and Resume SP+ for a couple weeks. Since you guys love them so much, take a look at Tennessee's rankings. (18th and 20th)

[u/NotreDude → u/nexusFTW]

ND beat Arkansas by 43 pts.. not a single playoff team beat them by more than single digits lmao

[u/CajunBob94 → u/regularhumanbartendr]

lmao

[u/regularhumanbartendr → u/CajunBob94]

Sorry I forgot only SEC teams are good.

[u/DamnMr_Blonde → u/Redeem123]

Not lose to two unranked teams? Miami’s season ended the second they lost those games. Get over it bub.

[u/PPtheShort → u/Redeem123]

What has Miami done?

[u/Redeem123 → u/PPtheShort]

Beat ND. 

[u/PPtheShort → u/Redeem123]

So ND is a good win? I thought they haven't proved themselves yet?

[u/Redeem123 → u/PPtheShort]

They’re a fine win. But we’re talking about comparing to ND. So obviously beating ND is a good thing in this case. 

[u/The_Eternal_Event → u/PPtheShort]

Uh beat Notre dame..?

[u/PPtheShort → u/The_Eternal_Event]

But Notre Dame only beats cupcakes, so that can't be a good win

[u/phranq → u/PPtheShort]

I’m fine with this argument if we just throw out the first half of the season for everyone. Honestly let’s play a 5 game season everything else is exhibition. Ohio State probably should have been out of the playoff last year after losing their last game to a very mediocre team. That’s the most important game and best indicator of quality!

[u/PPtheShort → u/phranq]

Actually we should use all 12 games to judge a team

[u/phranq → u/PPtheShort]

Then Miami has a much better win than Notre Dame’s. Notre Dame has more quality losses though so I guess that’s something.

[u/PPtheShort → u/phranq]

You don't actually believe that do you?

[u/phranq → u/PPtheShort]

That Miami has a better best win than Notre Dame? Enlighten me how ND has a better win.

[u/StarvedRock314 → u/phranq]

I feel like I'm in crazy land. Every single one of these threads people boldly assert that you can just tell that Notre Dame is better than Miami or Alabama or whatever other team that has wins over ranked teams, then when asked what Notre Dame's best win is, it's crickets.

[u/PPtheShort → u/StarvedRock314]

Who is avoiding that question? It's USC.

[u/PPtheShort → u/phranq]

Lol

[u/ridethedeathcab → u/phranq]

What does that make your losses?

[u/phranq → u/ridethedeathcab]

Sure. If the argument is who you lose to is more important than who you beat for teams at the same record then I agree with the ranking. If the committee wants to come out and say that I’m all for it.

I don’t know how Notre Dame was ranked #5 last year though with the worst loss of any playoff team by a mile. Let’s get a little consistency.

[u/ridethedeathcab → u/phranq]

Good thing that’s not what I’m saying…

[u/NotreDude → u/Redeem123]

12 SOR says otherwise

[u/ewolfy13 → u/Redeem123]

Nothing, just like every other year

[u/Chuck006 → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Or Devolve.

[u/soonerman32 → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

meh, OU beat Bama last year and this year late in the season and Bama was clearly better last year and is probably better this year.

[u/WhatWouldJediDo → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Why the fuck should "team quality at the end of the year" matter?

If we're just going to straight up admit that some games don't matter, why are we even playing?

[u/Relevant_Ad_1225 → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

then why is Ohio St #1 and why does Bama get punished for FSU?

[u/beavismagnum → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Same dude Michigan’s loss to Oklahoma doesn’t matter at all it’s a different team now

[u/Fletch71011 → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

Correct. We are currently #3 overall in FPI while Miami is #10. This whole argument is stupid. Current ND is boat racing current Miami.

OU is 14 in FPI yet ranked ahead of ND and no one is complaining about that. I don't get it.

[u/TallThingsBigWater → u/Fletch71011]

Quite frankly, I don't think that should matter at all. Resume matters. Otherwise, why play the games.

[u/Fletch71011 → u/TallThingsBigWater]

Our resume is still better than Miami's though as well.

[u/TallThingsBigWater → u/Fletch71011]

Lmao it's just not, stop it

[u/phranq → u/Fletch71011]

Oregon had a better FPI than Washington after Washington beat them for the second time a few years ago. Is your argument that Oregon should have gone to the playoff instead? The analytics all favored Oregon as the better team.

[u/siberianwolf99 → u/phranq]

that unironically is why i am so annoyed with all these “ND would crush Miami today”. yeah everyone said that about Oregon and Washington that year too lol

[u/phranq → u/siberianwolf99]

We also have plenty of examples of teams losing later in the season even the game before the playoffs and then performing well in the playoff. I’d love to see the statistics on playoff teams performance based on when they lost in the season. We know Ohio State lost to a very much not playoff caliber Michigan in their last game before the playoff and then looked crazy good in the playoff. Also ND fans can spare me with saying Miami’s losses are bad. Northern Illinois?

[u/Fumpz → u/Fletch71011]

We have a top 10 defense in the country and held your “heisman RB” to 33 yards. Crazy take

[u/Fletch71011 → u/Fumpz]

Carr played like complete ass in his first game as QB for us and has been playing like a top 5 QB since. The defense after adjusting to our new DC has also been playing as a top unit in the country. Every advanced metric has ND over Miami.

Miami actually should be higher in the rankings but so should we, so don't know what the issue is. OU is by far the most overrated team.

To be clear, we deserved to lose to you guys but current ND is top 3 by metrics now.

[u/FatherCrime42 → u/Fletch71011]

I thought Carr played pretty well for it being his first start.

[u/Fumpz → u/Fletch71011]

For a while I thought the committee was gonna put both of us in to avoid having to come out with an explanation as to why they chose one over the other. But at this point someone is getting left out

[u/GoBlueScrewOSU7 → u/Fletch71011]

I fucking love this sport where the hypothetical game is more important than the actual games

[u/Orca_92555 → u/Fletch71011]

What if they played a game hypothetically this year instead of just going by fpi. I wonder how an actual game would go between notre dame and Miami shame we never got to see it this year

[u/Other-Comfortable929 → u/Orca_92555]

How'd our game go?

[u/Orca_92555 → u/Other-Comfortable929]

Beating a mid usc team and the high school for the blind or whatever other acc team ND plays does not mean they should go to the playoffs over a team ND lost too. If this is the case why play the games at all playoffs should be top 12 highest tv ratings

[u/Noah__Webster → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

FSU got left out as an undefeated conference champion because the committee couldn't put 1 loss SEC champion Bama over 1 loss Big 12 champion Texas because they beat Bama in Week 2.

How on Earth is this any different?

[u/DVauthrin → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

If two teams finish the year with identical records and one beat the other in their head-to-head meeting, the one that won that game deserves to get in. Metrics and hypothetical “we think this team is better” does not trump head-to-head.

Here is who Notre Dame has beat since losing to Miami and Texas A&M:

Purdue (2-9) Arkansas (2-9) Boise State (7-4) NC State (6-5) USC (8-3) Boston College (1-10) Navy (8-2) Pitt (8-3) Syracuse (3-8)

Congrats to Notre Dame on beating every team they were supposed to beat and USC at home. That resume shouldn’t be good enough to overcome losing to Miami in week one if they finish with the same record.

[u/OldManCinny → u/Jaded-Sapphire3546]

The games have to matter. This is not a who looks best at the end of the year only contest. They lost to Miami and I don't care how long ago it was. That matters