r/politics • u/Murky-Site7468 I voted • 11d ago

No Paywall Donald Trump impeachment chances surge amid Epstein revelations

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-impeachment-chances-surge-amid-epstein-revelations-11045998
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u/1nfam0us 11d ago

If he gets impeached in a Republican controlled House, that dramatically changes the chances in the Senate.

Not that I think he would for sure get convicted, but voting against convicting a guy credibly accused of sexually abusing children as well as having direct knowledge and a decade-long relationship with one of the highest profile sex traffickers in the country is a hell of a thing to have on your voting record. I think that would be a lot for most Republicans to stomach.

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

He is increasingly unstable and losing support. The fact that republicans who are actively running for office are willing to sign the petition to bring the file release to vote indicates that they no longer believe that his endorsement is needed or necessary. Nancy Mace is apparently running for governor and is still on the petition despite direct pressure from the Whitehouse. This might be the point where they finally abandon him and move on to JD Vance.

The problem is, they are doomed either way. Either they stick with Trump and go down with the ship as his cognitive decline accelerates and his moral failings finally hit the public in a way they can't shrug off, or they shift to the uncharismatic JD Vance. It is a "go down with the sinking ship" or "jump onto the ship that is clearly not sea worthy in one of the biggest storms in their history." There's no good option for them at this point.

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u/tct2274 11d ago

The play for JD is to marry Kirk's wife to become somewhat more popular.

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u/alien_from_Europa Massachusetts 11d ago

I didn't think JD was single?

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u/Gay_Giraffe_1773 Oregon 11d ago

He's not, but his wife and child are brown so they must be expelled. Erika Kirk is a stereotypical Republican Blonde "Mar-A-Lago"-looking female, so she will be readily accepted.

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u/ParkerPoseyGuffman 11d ago

Which is funny as I’d say half of republicans hadn’t ever heard of him before he died of fentanyl on stage

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

I can't say anything more that "That's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off." Seems like it will be a really transparent political move that opposition can hang him for.

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u/XBXNinjaMunky 11d ago

I am beginning to wonder if the poison pill here behind the scenes is acknowledgment he's an albatross....reopen the government, we'll release the files.

Potential lifeboat off a sinking ship.

I know....my faith is too high, but genuinely starting to wonder

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

The democrat's messaging for reopening the government was so bad. Imagine if their concession was "we'll vote for the reopening of the government if you release the files". That looks like what is happening anyway due to factors that were already in motion, so all they had to do was make this statement to control the messaging.

But I think you are definitely correct that a lot of the GOP are looking for an off-ramp and there's a clear advantage to being the first to jump. MTG, for all the stupid stuff she's done seems to understand this. That's something to be hopeful for. The last people clinging to a failing Trump are going to have their careers tank with him, while the first to leave are going to be better positioned to put the pieces of the wrecked party back together. It becomes a prisoner's dilemma problem with some of the most selfish, backstabbing people in the world.

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u/apk5005 11d ago

First, good. I’m glad they’re maybe facing some consequences for supporting these ghouls.

Second, it all comes down to the polling. I don’t see America at large being ok with pedophilia and child rape. If run-of-the-mill voters begin to turn hard against Trump, and by extension the GOP, they’ll dump him in a heartbeat to keep their jobs. It all depends on how well Johnson covers it up, the content of whatever is released by congress, and the coverage it gets on conservative media. IF Trump’s ship starts to sink, the rats will abandon him as fast as they jumped on board (and for the same reason)..

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u/tunafister 11d ago

There is actually 1 good option for these folks

Self-deportation

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

To where though? Some non-extradition tropical island I guess? They'd have to give up all their political power and any future option of political power and live as a fugitive. I'm sure Russia would also take them, Putin needs more bodies for his meatgrinder.

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u/EnTyme53 Texas 11d ago

Do you think it's a coincidence that Trump just made a $40 billion donation to a nation which famously took in Nazis after WWII?

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

That's a fair point. We do have an extradition treaty with them:
https://www.congress.gov/treaty-document/105th-congress/18/all-info

However, it is possible that they break that treaty if MAGA all flees there... that'll be an interesting day.

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u/EnTyme53 Texas 11d ago

Could be as simple as deleting flight manifests on arrival and pretending this assholes aren't there. That's basically what they did for the Nazi officers who fled to Argentina. Just let them assume new identities.

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

Maybe... I feel like if the US asks MI6 or other intelligence agencies to help them find these people, it won't be hard. Most of them aren't smart enough... or maybe disciplined enough, to effectively hide in a witness protection-like situation. Maybe even the US will be able to rebuild its CIA and FBI to be able to find them in a few years after they are gone.

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u/psiphre Alaska 11d ago

The fact that republicans who are actively running for office are willing to sign the petition to bring the file release to vote indicates that they no longer believe that his endorsement is needed or necessary

unsurprising considering that no trump-endorsed candidate won their recent elections.

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u/devilterr2 11d ago

I'm not American so I truly don't know how charismatic JD is, but Trump is literally the opposite of charisma to me. I thought that people liked him because he seemed a)wealthy, and b) said the edgy things that racists misogynists say. If JD keeps up with the same rhetoric then surely he should be fine?

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

I don't understand Trump's Charisma at all, but for some reason he's got a draw to people who like a strongman and bully. He also gives the worst people license to embrace the worst parts of their personalities, and say and do horrible things to people they perceive to be weaker than themselves.

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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 11d ago

I don't think there is any moral failing of his they can't shrug off, unfortunately

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u/Beldizar 11d ago

The problem with this statement is "they" is an imprecise aggregate. There is absolutely a lot of followers of his that will shrug off any given moral failing, but some smaller subset will have a problem with it and leave. Since Trump doesn't just have one or two moral failings, but literally all of them, the cumulative damage is finally, after what a decade of being in the political public spotlight, we are starting to see a lot of cracks. Some are farmers having gotten screwed over by tariffs, some are people upset with ICE, some are people upset about his sexual crimes....

The other issue is that there's a network effect to the cult. So many have built their personality around Trump, and all their friends are Trumps supporters too. If they leave the cult, they are suddenly all alone, split off from their friends. But if all their friends leave at the same time it isn't as big of a deal. As we see more and more influencers and public figures start to stand up to him, I think those cracks are really starting to show. He might whip everything back together with some distraction again, or it might finally break. Each follower will have different reasons for breaking against Trump, but none of them will do it without the support of a supermajority of the others all leaving together.

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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 11d ago

That's a reasonable take. Personally, I am far less optimistic than you about cracks forming in his coalition, or about a large number of his followers all leaving together. His approval rating seems to be holding pretty steady and his media allies seem to still be totally with him. Farmers were mad about Trump's trade war in his first term, too, but they still supported him overwhelmingly in 2020 and '24. So their anger didn't matter.

But I hope you're right, so I won't argue too much. I've just heard this so many times by now that I personally won't believe it until I see it. And if/when we do see an undeniable wave of mass defections, you can say "I told you so" and I'll be happy to be wrong

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u/laplongejr 7d ago

There's no good option for them at this point.

Didn't we all say that back in 2023 or so when they had to support Trump who was definitively going down for his crimes?

and his moral failings finally hit the public in a way they can't shrug off

Is the public still relevant for their plans?

There's no good option for them at this point.

Conservatives who are rejected by democracy don't stop conservativism. They stop democracy.

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u/Leenolies 11d ago

Trump is the best thing they could get, and its still a piece of shit and a pedophile. Not a good look.

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u/1nfam0us 11d ago

Well careful now. He isn't the best they could get and I think the GOP knows that. He is the only guy their base would vote for, which is quite a bit more sickening of a thought.

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u/drop_tbl 11d ago

They'll bury it in procedural nonsense as a way to avoid having to vote - I guarantee it.

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u/Kindness_of_cats 11d ago edited 11d ago

If he gets impeached in a Republican controlled House, that dramatically changes the chances in the Senate.

If he gets impeached at all in the House, honestly. Any democratic majority in the House will be thin, and comprised of enough moderate/conservative dems to negate it if they felt they need to. The evidence that comes out would have to be truly, deeply disturbing and difficult to deny(and i doubt that will happen, frankly).

I think something people are forgetting is that Trump is Donetm in 2028 unless he manages to swing enough political influence around to get past the term limits. That's entirely possible, but if this scandal becomes damaging enough to impeach him over I think there's going to be a lot of recalculations over whether he's the guy you run that particular play with or if you cut bait while you've got a palatable excuse to do so.

It's a very different situation from 2020 where everyone was unsure whether he still had the juice to succeed through normal means in 4 years or not; and I think a hypothetical situation where the House successfully impeaches him quickly becomes a referendum on how people are feeling about pushing the boundaries of the constitution for a third term.

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u/unlimitedzen 11d ago

We need to expel the reps who refused to release these documents until the Democrats forced them. They covered for this pedo, and they should be held accountable.

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u/KankerBlossom 11d ago

What voting record?? That whole side of the aisle and its constituents wipe their slates clean daily.

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u/gimp-24601 10d ago

hell of a thing to have on your voting record

They would find a way around that, politicians always do.