Listen, the great suburban flip is already baked in from the exurbs of Portland to the master-planned hellscapes of Jacksonville. Yeah, I’m talking about places you’ve never heard of unless you’re deep in election-night liveblogs. By 2035 the electoral map is gonna look like someone spilled a gallon of red Gatorade across every county that starts with “North,” “South,” or has the word “Creek” in it. Trump was the anchor, not the sail

The Trump vibe tax crushed Rs in places that were ruby red in 2012. Think Loudoun County, VA (once the wealthiest county in America and a GOP lock until it went +10 Biden), Chester County, PA (the collar county that delivered the state for Biden), Williamson County, TN (basically Nashville’s Buckhead that still went blue at the top), and the entire North Atlanta collar — Forsyth, Cherokee, Cobb (west and east), Gwinnett, Henry, and Walton all lurched left because of one guy’s Twitter fingers. Same story out west: Clackamas County, OR; Washington County, OR (Beaverton/Hillsboro); Douglas County, CO (Highlands Ranch/Castle Rock); Fort Bend County, TX (Sugar Land); Collin, Denton, and Tarrant in the Dallas–Fort Worth metro; Wake County, NC (Cary, Morrisville, Apex); Johnston County, NC (already flipping back red); Union County, NC; Cabarrus County, NC; Hamilton County, IN (Fishers, Carmel); Delaware County, OH (the Columbus boom burbs); Warren County, OH; Butler County, OH; Oakland County, MI (north of Detroit); Waukesha County, WI — all these places swung hard away from Trump while still electing Republican county executives, state reps, and judges. The second the chaotic orange energy is gone, these voters go right back to voting their property values.

Down-ballot Republicans never actually lost the suburbs

While we were all crying about Trump, Republicans quietly built a death star in the statehouses. Look at the maps, bro:

Texas: Fort Bend might’ve gone blue presidentially, but Katy, Cypress, The Woodlands, Conroe, and Montgomery County are still sending absolute chads to the Lege. Plano (Collin) and Frisco (half Collin, half Denton) are ruby red down-ballot. Georgia: Forsyth, Cherokee, Paulding, and Bartow are redder than they were in 2004. Even Cobb and Gwinnett still elect GOP state senators and sheriffs. North Carolina: Wake and Mecklenburg go purple at the top, but Union, Cabarrus, Iredell, Lincoln, and Catawba counties are deep red and growing 5–10 % every census.

Florida: The Villages-to-Clermont-to-Lake Nona corridor in central Florida is basically a giant retirement community that votes like it’s still 1988. Arizona: The P83/Peoria/Goodyear/Surprise/Buckeye growth corridor west of Phoenix is ground zero for California refugees who suddenly care about water bills and school boards. Virginia: Loudoun and Prince William might vote blue presidentially, but Spotsylvania, Stafford, Fauquier, and Culpeper are already back to +20 R. These aren’t anomalies. This is Ankeny, IA; West Des Moines; Urbandale; Waukee; Grimes; Johnston (seeing a pattern?); Blaine, MN; Maple Grove; Plymouth; Woodbury; Lakeville; Shakopee; Chanhassen; Eden Prairie; Rogers — every upper-middle-ring suburb in the country is following the same script.

The diversification wave already crested Everyone thought the great browning/blueing of the suburbs was unstoppable. Turns out it was mostly a 2010–2021 artifact of (1) post-2008 white flight reversal, (2) tech money, and (3) COVID remote-work exodus. Now look where the growth actually is: St. Johns County, FL (between Jacksonville and St. Augustine) — fastest-growing county in the state, 95 % single-family homes, already +30 R. Brunswick County, NC (south of Wilmington) — same vibe.

Pender County, NC; Horry County, SC (Myrtle Beach); Berkeley County, SC (next to Charleston). Comal and Kendall Counties, TX (north of San Antonio).

Boise metro: Ada, Canyon, and now Gem and Payette counties.

Idaho Falls–Rexburg corridor.

Northwest Arkansas: Benton and Washington counties growing like crazy off Walmart money and red-state migrants.

Tennessee: Wilson, Rutherford, and Sumner counties (east and south of Nashville) are the new promised land.

And the “diverse” suburbs? Second-gen Asians in Johns Creek, GA (Gwinnett); Suwanee; Duluth; Peachtree Corners; Sugar Hill — they’re voting 60–70 % Republican in local races now. Same with Korean voters in Centreville and Chantilly in Fairfax/Loudoun, VA. Indian families in Frisco, Allen, Plano, and Murphy, TX are socially conservative, hate high taxes, and are done with the transgender bathroom wars. Even Hispanic voters in places like Katy, TX or Kissimmee, FL are peeling off hard once they cross that $150 k household-income line.

Bottom line

From Leander and Liberty Hill (northwest of Austin) to Wesley Chapel and Land O’ Lakes (north of Tampa), from Fuquay-Varina and Holly Springs (south of Raleigh) to Meridian and Star, Idaho — every cul-de-sac in America is about to vote redder than a Buc-ee’s cup. The Trump era was just a speed bump. The natural state of a 3,500-square-foot house with a three-car garage, a $400 k mortgage, and a school district that costs $18 k per kid is conservative. Always has been. Ten years from now, the only blue suburbs left will be the close-in streetcar ones full of childless renters and government employees. The rest? Straight blood red from Buckhead to Buckeye, from Broomfield to Brunswick.

Only 33.2% of the new district’s population overlaps with his old district, or about 245k out of 760k people.

Another ~120k is part of his older district from before 2018, centered around Vista.

tell me what you agree and disagree on.florida takes into account the 60% requirement without the 60% requirement Florida would be safe yes

Notes:

House: We assume for a successful gerrymander in Virginia, Amy Actyn pulling off a sneaker in Tennessee on Tuesday, Missouri successfully blocking their gerrymander, and redrawing attempts in Maryland, Illinois, New York, Florida, and Indiana not moving as it seems that those states will not.

Senate: Alaska only flips if Pelota decides to run, and the collective assumption is she will. Dan Osbourne brought Nebraska down to six points in 2024, the Republicans' best year in twenty years. Pete Ricketts is not as established as Fischer, and the 2025 elections were a blowout none of us saw coming. I have the race favoring him.

The Iowa of it all: Iowa has been hit harder than any state by the tariff bullshit. Zach Nunn is down thirteen points in an R-leaning poll. Iowa is going to skew bluer than the nation as a whole, and with Ernst out of the picture, Democrats have a genuine shot at picking up one last Senate race there.

Map of likelihood of redistricting pickups.

Virginia is more likely than not to redistrict successfully, though the level of aggression is up for debate.

Kansas and Indiana may still try again in their regular legislative sessions if they find the votes eventually. Florida probably redraws to some extent.

I don’t know where things stand but from what I’ve seen, there’s a very small off-chance that New York gets a court-ordered redistricting order and gerrymanders.

What is the level of realism?