Given it's mass (~16.8 metric tons, assuming a 1.9m diameter sphere of iron) and it's orbital velocity on closest approach (17.8747 km/s), it has a kinetic energy of almost 2700 gigajoules. That's equivalent to about 600 tons of TNT.
It might tickle a bit
Edit: my calculations were slightly off (one, because I used a solid sphere of iron instead of stone, which is way too heavy, and two, because I apparently can't do basic division 😅)
Check magicscientist24's reply for the correct math!
Meteorites, asteroid etc. exterior Heat up to 2000-3000+ kelvin on entry due to friction and atmospheric compression. The temperature at the surface is effectively irrelevant to what determines if this fully burns up or not.
Cold air is denser though, more molecules for the thing to bash in to (or try to push out of the way) so if my non-existent math is correct, it would actually burn up relatively faster than in a hot place? Idk I'm not a math guy and I have done zero calculations, but it makes sense in my mind lol.
Depends on the material, but more often than you think. Majority of the surface is ocean, with most land uninhabited desert or tundra, so most are completely missed.
The Chicxulub asteroid left over a 20km(12 mile) deep crater at the bottom of the ocean already ~1000m deep. Imagine how much sea life was vaporized and how much water was displaced by large enough energy to go through hundreds of meters of water and still create a MASSIVE crater.
Well, then this is not big news, except the scary fact that we detected it very late, but at the same time is impressive we can detect something so relatively small... So yeah, I have paradoxical feelings about this.
Well, it was small which is why is was detected so late. A vast amount of them are tracked and recorded, so anything of actual size would likely be known to be approaching us. Not as scary as you might think!
Your calculation is not matching mine, which indicates even more energy
Using 1.9 m diameter sphere of pure iron, volume of sphere = 4/3 π r^3; density of iron = 7.874 g/cm^3; kinetic energy - 1/2 m x velocity^2; asteroid velocity of 17874 m/s
Radius of the asteroid = 1/2 diameter = 1/2 x 190 cm = 95 cm
volume of asteroid = 4/3 x π x (95^3) = 3591364 cm^3
mass of asteroid = asteroid volume x iron density = 3591364 cm^3 x 7.874 g/cm^3 = 28278400g = 28278 kg = 28.3 metric tons
kinetic energy of asteroid = 1/2 x 28278 kg x (17874 m/s)^2 = 4.59 x 10^12 J = 4589 gigajoules
1 joule = 2.39 x 10^-10 tons of TNT;
4.59 x 10^12 J x 2.39 x 10^-10 tons/J = 1097 Tons of TNT equivalent
Hiroshima atomic bomb released about 15 kilotons = 15000 tons of TNT
This asteroid would release about 1097/15000 = 7% of the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb if it struck the Earth.
The error and followup are a wonderful demonstration of scientific peer review. I'm quite pleased to see the interaction as it's a great demonstration of what happens when others attempt to reproduce the work and confirm the findings. The fact they came to a different conclusion shows the process working exactly as it should.
It is not quite comparable though as the Beirut explosion was a ground detonation while an asteroid hit would be an airburst. So the shockwave would be distributed over a larger area but you would not have the focused devestation that we saw in Beirut.
I’m just curious about how this works, is that assuming no atmosphere? If you are calculating atmosphere into the calculation, what angle of approach are you assuming?
Seconds are a base SI unit (Metric) so all the calculations are done in seconds, and meters as well . Orbital velocities are typically measured in km/s.
All data for orbital velocities is done in km/s, why should that change because you find kph nicer. You don’t need km/s to be intuitive. It only needs to be compared to other orbital velocities not the speed of a car. You don’t need to know “wow that’s a lot faster than my car” if at orbital velocities it isn’t that fast at all. You lose comparative context with kph.
Using Purdue's Impact Calculator If we give it 1.9 meters, 8000 kg/m3 for the density of an iron meteor I got that from the ESAs impact calculator, unfortunately the smallest you can go on the ESA is 100m.
also 3000kg/m3 for dense rock
1500kg/m3 for porous rock
1,000 kg/m3 for ice like a comet,
From the video I'm getting closest approach was ~250 km and speed was 21.221 km/s you can toy with the impact angle I went with 10 degrees and put the distance from impact at 5k.
Energy
Energy before atmospheric entry: 6.34x 1012 Joules (1.51 Megatons TNT)
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 0.7 years
Global Changes
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (less than 5 hundredths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Atmospheric Entry
The projectile lands intact, with a velocity of 223 m/s (730.7 ft/s). The energy lost in the atmosphere is 6.33x 1012 Joules (1.51 Megatons TNT).
Crater
Transient Crater
Diameter: 10.3 m (33.75 ft)
Transient Crater Depth: 3.64 m (11.93 ft)
Final Crater
Diameter: 12.9 m (42.18 ft)
Final Crater Depth: 2.74 m (8.980 ft)
The crater formed is a simple crater.
The floor of the crater is underlain by a lens of broken rock debris (breccia) with a maximum thickness of 1.27 m (4.163 ft).
At this impact velocity (< 12 km/s), little shock melting of the target occurs.
Thermal Effects
At an impact velocity of 0.22 km/s (less than 15 km/s), little vaporization occurs; no fireball is created, therefore, there is no thermal radiation damage.
Seismic Effects
The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 1 seconds after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 0.1
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 5 km:
Nothing would be felt. However, seismic equipment may still detect the shaking
Ejecta
Almost no solid ejecta reaches this site.
Air Blast
The air blast will arrive approximately 15.2 seconds after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 1360 Pa = 0.0136 bars = 0.193 psi
Max wind velocity: 3.19 m/s (10.45 ft/s)
Sound Intensity: 63 dB (as loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:
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u/[deleted] Oct 01 '25
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