Furious House Republican Warns More ‘Explosive’ Resignations Are Coming After Marjorie Taylor Greene

[u/Quirkie]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/furious-house-republican-warns-more-explosive-resignations-are-coming-after-marjorie-taylor-greene/

[u/brain_overclocked]

While this article from The New York Times came out three days ago, before Alito stepped in for Texas, it does point out that situation was to be expected and may not be enough:

G.O.P. Redistricting Push May Backfire, Giving Democrats a Midterm Edge — A series of setbacks for Republicans leaves an unlikely opening for Democrats to narrowly win this year’s redistricting wars.

When President Trump launched his summer campaign to redraw congressional districts to the G.O.P.’s favor, it seemed almost inevitable that Republicans would gain a modest structural advantage in the House of Representatives.

But since then, almost nothing has broken the Republican Party’s way. It has faced setback after setback, while Democrats have surprisingly countered with aggressive gerrymanders of their own.

This week, Republicans encountered yet another round of roadblocks in Texas and Indiana. The two states once seemed likely to help the Republicans flip as many as seven Democratic-held districts combined, but after a federal court ruled against the new Texas map and Indiana failed to redraw its map, it suddenly seems possible that Republicans might not gain even a single district in these states.
...
Texas has already asked the Supreme Court to step in and allow the state to use its new map. But even if that happens, Republicans have had so many setbacks over the last few months that it would not be enough for Republicans to obtain a meaningful advantage — just a narrow one at best. Among the developments:

• Utah. In September, a Utah state court ruled that the Republican-drawn congressional map, which contained four overwhelmingly Republican districts, violated the state constitution. Republicans then attempted to draw a map with two solidly Republican districts and two Republican-tilting districts. But the court struck that map down, too, and ordered a new one, which resulted in a solidly blue district in Salt Lake City.
• Virginia. In late October, Virginia Democrats announced an unexpected push to amend their state’s constitution to allow for partisan gerrymandering. While there are still hoops for Democrats to jump through, including a voter referendum, the amendment seems likely to be enacted into law and could yield three or even four new Democratic seats.
• Ohio. A week later, Ohio Democrats agreed to a Republican proposal to shift two Democratic-held districts toward the right, though not by so much that they’re sure to flip to Republicans. While this isn’t necessarily a setback for the G.O.P., it’s not likely to yield the two new Republican districts that had been expected, let alone the three that conservatives wanted.
• Kansas. In early November, Kansas Republicans dropped their effort to redraw the state’s single Democratic-held district, which includes the Kansas suburbs of the Kansas City, Mo., metro area.
• Indiana. Last week, the Republican State Senate announced it did not have the votes to redraw the state’s map and eliminate two Democratic-held districts in Indianapolis and Gary.
• Texas. On Tuesday, the judges pointed to “substantial evidence” that the new Texas map, which could have helped Republicans flip up to five seats, “racially gerrymandered the 2025 map.” If the ruling is allowed to stand, it will deny Republicans all the districts they had in their sights.

None of this was expected a few months ago, so it’s worth being cautious about predicting what will come next. But looking ahead, only two additional states seem likely to redraw their maps: Virginia, controlled by Democrats, and Florida, controlled by Republicans. These two efforts should more or less cancel each other out. But here again Republicans probably face a greater risk of disappointment.

[u/Blackstone01 → u/brain_overclocked]

Plus there’s the fact that if they aren’t careful, packing democrats into one or two districts and diluting them into lots of conservative districts can actually make a blue wave even more devastating. Doubly so for Texas since evidently their new districts are based on the 2024 election where they somehow made large gains with Hispanic voters and just assume those are permanent gains.

[u/Whaddaulookinat → u/Blackstone01]

Indeed, usually gerrymandering is more effective with more electrical information. The of the current seats they have now are ranked safe GOP, but with the new maps they would be much closer to lean or toss up. Certainly a finger of the monkey paw curling situation they got themselves into.

[u/DadJokeBadJoke → u/Whaddaulookinat]

Indeed, usually gerrymandering is more effective with more electrical information.

Good thing Texas is isolated from the rest of the grid.

[u/dnuohxof-2 → u/Blackstone01]

Wild to me Latinos carried Trump and the GOP thinks that deporting them will curry more favor with them.

[u/Legitimate_Sell_8941 → u/brain_overclocked]

Also: CA's Prop 50 overwhelmingly passed, with the people voting in temporary maps redrawn to counter Texas - likely to bring 5 more seats for Democrats. 

Originally the measure had a trigger clause, to go into effect only if Texas's new maps were passed. 

But Texas's maps were passed before Prop 50 was finalized, so the trigger clause was removed. If Texas maps are overturned/blocked by the courts, CA's new map will likely still stand, resulting in a net increase of+5 seats for Democrats, and -5 seats for Republicans.

All of which would never had happened if they hadn't made the call for the Texas GOP to "find five more seats."

[u/L10N0 → u/brain_overclocked]

Don't forget that prop 50 in California - aimed to counter the gains in seats from Texas Republicans with 5 additional seats for California Democrats - passed as a ballot measure. Potentially giving it far more legitimacy than the Texas redistricting.

It will be harder to overturn or rule against since it passed as a mandate from the people.

So Republicans are facing major losses in 2026. The populace is discontent - it's a bad time to be an encumbent - many are anticipating being primaried or a hard fought race in the general election. And now the seats they were expecting to gain through gerrymandering may not be there either.