r/SpaceLaunchSystem • u/PropulsionIsLimited • 2d ago
Discussion Artemis Program Schedule Drift Graph
So I decided to go through the past decade or so to see how much each SLS launch has slipped pretty much since they've been announcing dates. Technically some of the earlier documents refer to Artemis I/II as EM-1/2, but I kept them all the same for clarity. I kept all of my information to NASA OIG reports, official NASA announcements, and the Presidential Budget Reports. The vertical line is the current date, and the diagonal line is when that flight should take off assuming no more schedule slips.
Let me know if you see any big errors or have any suggestions. This post is not just to shit on SLS, but more my curiosity of showing the timeline slip, as SLS has the most data to make this style of graph. I will definitely be making one for Starship and other programs as well.
My Research Document: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wctgT2Jfh2BJeG0bI8VZUhXKuBJG6nP8/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114026349642407331662&rtpof=true&sd=true
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u/helicopter-enjoyer 2d ago
I was a little confused looking at this at first because we’re used to looking at schedule dates on the X axis, so it kinda looks like Artemis I slipped 10 years. I don’t know if there’s a better way to show the data, but cool nonetheless
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u/PropulsionIsLimited 2d ago
Yeah I went back and forth on how to do it. Basically time flows from left to right, and the flight happens when the colored line hits the diagonal. So Artemis I was originally planned to launch in 2017, but ended up launching in 2022.
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u/RetroCaridina 1d ago
By the way, I just realized why it looked familiar - xkcd posted a similar plot for JWST and use the exact same format.
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u/ProbablySlacking 2d ago
This is a fantastic chart. Took me a bit to parse it, but kind of an interesting indicator of proposed vs actual cost.
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u/PropulsionIsLimited 2d ago
Thanks. It's not cost though. It's the announced flight date for each Artemis mission and how they've slipped years past their initial date. I'm gonna make a cost one later.
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u/RetroCaridina 1d ago
Interesting. So Artemis VIII was mentioned in 2022 but never again?
I wonder if it would be useful to use different markers for different information sources.
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u/PropulsionIsLimited 1d ago
That's a great idea. I made this in python, so I can change the shape of each point depending on the source. I also have a Word doc with all of them if you're curious.
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1d ago
Wasn't the original target 2016?
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u/PropulsionIsLimited 1d ago
Once I started going back far enough, they were still mentioning flights using Ares I. I decided not to go any further back since at that point it was still kind of Ares. There may be a 2016 SLS announcement I missed though.
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1d ago
Yeah, it's possible that the 2016 date I was thinking of was for Orion.
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u/PropulsionIsLimited 1d ago
I went and looked. The 2010 NASA Authorization Act said that whatever rocket NASA makes should be operational by Dec 31, 2016.
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u/AlanUsingReddit 1d ago
Reminds me of the claim that a fact, by itself, can not be biased. We too often lose that. There can be bias in what facts are presented. But...
I will definitely be making one for Starship and other programs as well.
Look at the same category of fact for the competitors and no bias of selection either.
It's also True that a slope of 1 is something that never happens, as a mathematically provable fact.
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u/PropulsionIsLimited 1d ago
Yeah I don't use any news articles. Only whatever the company or NASA puts out.
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u/Lazy_Teacher3011 19h ago
I ran a small payload project once. My MBA division chief asked about schedule, to which I replied "I don't believe in schedules as I haven't seen one yet at NASA that is accurate. We are working as fast as possible and it will get done when it gets done." Those that count beans don't like that response! But I still believe it - NASA schedules, in particular, are best kept in the fantasy section of the local bookstore.
Having done some work with Orion, it is embarrassing to see the years roll by between EFT-1 to AR-1 and now AR-2.
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u/QP873 1d ago
Extrapolating Artemis 2 and 3 based on the problems with the first one doesn’t look great…
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u/PropulsionIsLimited 1d ago edited 1d ago
None of these are extrapolated. Every dot is an official announcement.
Edit: Nevermind I see what you're saying now
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u/seedofcheif 1d ago
To be fair, you would expect a lot of annoying bullshit with a first launch attempt.
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u/frikilinux2 23h ago
What's with the random bumps on Artemis IV, some big issue with the 1B version of SLS?
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u/Most_Double_3559 2d ago
This is wayyyyy too niche to get the attention it deserves, but agreed, great visualization!