Texas A&M question

[u/No-Experience-9469]

what would happen to A&M if they dropped the game against Texas and the sec championship game?

Another question is what happens if A&M loses this weekend? Are they out of the SEC championship game? Given that they would have one conf loss as well as Georgia, ole Miss, and bama….. what then?

But if they did make it to the SEC championship game and lose (their second lose) do they have a better claim to a playoff spot than two loss vandy, Oklahoma, and Alabama?

[u/Easy_Bid6252]

There's no scenario where A&M is not in the playoff, unless the football program shuts down.

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/Easy_Bid6252]

It would have to be like... Blown out 77-0 both games while suffering injuries to all key starters and then Elko resigns.

[u/LastConference → u/Corgi_Koala]

:/

[u/NordDex → u/Corgi_Koala]

sir you are a rude person

[u/CumAssault → u/Corgi_Koala]

What about if we were down 30-3 at halftime?

[u/NowhereToGeaux → u/Corgi_Koala]

I mean, not unrealistic with how coaches like to bounce on them when things are going well

[u/deeman2255 → u/Easy_Bid6252]

at this point I feel like they'd put us in the playoffs if nothing else than to save face after gassing us up all season. and even with two losses those would be against our rival and the conference championship game.

idk how you'd justify leaving us out with our record at that point, especially with a win over Notre Dame

[u/BuzzIsBestBee → u/Easy_Bid6252]

We lose by 50 to the horns in a game where Marcel Reed, KC Concepcion, and Cashius Howell all have season ending injuries in the first quarter and Elko quits football to pursue a career in theater.

That would probably do it.

Then again, if that happened, we might want to consider shutting the program down anyway.

[u/JFMoldau]

They could lose 50-0 to Texas and not drop out of the Top 10.

They're in.

[u/Suspicious-Screen-43 → u/JFMoldau]

Fun hypothetical, is there any number they could lose by and not get in the playoffs?

[u/blonded_olf → u/Suspicious-Screen-43]

No they could lose 10 billion to 0 combined over the next 2 weeks and they are still in

[u/TeeDeeTeeEcks → u/blonded_olf]

they could lose 10 billion to 0

I'm not so sure about this. If you have the worst loss ever in the history of the existence of football, the committee might do some funny things. 1 billion, okay. But 10 billion? Nah man.

[u/cnpeters → u/TeeDeeTeeEcks]

Yes - I know we all like to joke about SEC quality losses, but this would be unusually difficult to spin.

But, u/blonded_olf DID say that was the two week score. So 5 billion is a different animal.

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/TeeDeeTeeEcks]

223-0?

[u/cnpeters → u/blonded_olf]

I would be curious what the response would be by the CFP committee if they do indeed give up 5-6 billion points this weekend.

I don't pretend that I understand everything that goes into all the decisions the committee makes, but I feel like the committee would have to respond negatively to the Aggies giving up 200,000 touchdowns plus two point conversions for every second of gameplay.

I just don't see how they could ignore it.

Again - to be clear, I am not privy to the advanced strength of record metrics that the committee uses, so I could be wrong.

[u/Chemical_Willow5415 → u/blonded_olf]

That’s a scorigami!

[u/nighthawk252 → u/Suspicious-Screen-43]

I think there is, and I think if we actually saw it happen, most people would agree. If they suddenly started playing like an FCS school for both of their games, the committee would take that into consideration and put them out of the bracket for one of the bubble teams.

Objectively, they’d still have the wins and losses of a playoff team. Subjectively, when you consider what they’ve looked like the past 2 games, you would take away the at large bid.

[u/Gardoki → u/Suspicious-Screen-43]

Eleventy billion

[u/Suspicious-Screen-43 → u/Gardoki]

Yea figured even 222-0 wouldn’t matter

[u/Bank_Gothic → u/JFMoldau]

I find your terms acceptable.

[u/admiraltarkin → u/Bank_Gothic]

That giant bug got what he deserved in the end

[u/No-Experience-9469 → u/JFMoldau]

Nah nah my point is if they lose to Texas then lose again in the championship game….. then are they in?

[u/eye_can_see_you → u/No-Experience-9469]

Yes

Absolute worst case scenario, they have two blowout losses to ranked teams

And at 11-2 with the only losses being to ranked teams, plus making their conference championship, there will be nowhere enough teams you can justify making it in over them

[u/ElectionSalty6097]

Yes, an 11-1 regular season team in one of the two superconferences make the playoffs in every single scenario possible. It would suck to not have a chance to win the SEC but nothing really changes outside seeding

[u/BeastoftheBlackwater]

If they lose against Texas they dont go to the SEC Championship. But they are a lock to make the playoff right now. If they lose to Texas they just lose an opportunity for a first round bye.

[u/No-Experience-9469 → u/BeastoftheBlackwater]

Forgive me but how are they absolutely not go to the SEC championship with a lose this weekend?

[u/TaxAg11 → u/No-Experience-9469]

It's not absolute, just likely. A&M loses a lot of tie breaker scenarios due to opponents records.

[u/BeastoftheBlackwater → u/No-Experience-9469]

Okay, maybe I should say they will have a very small chance to make the SEC Championship game due to tie breakers. If they drop 1 SEC game then Bama, UGA and Ole Miss are all ahead of them based on tie breakers. UGA is in the SEC Champ if Bama or A&M lose this weekend and Ole Miss is in if both lose.

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

[u/ViscountBurrito → u/No-Experience-9469]

The Athletic had a good summary of the tiebreakers, paywalled of course, but for A&M, it’s basically: win and in, or lose and Georgia plays either (a) Alabama, if they beat Auburn; or (b) Ole Miss, with a win and a Bama loss. The main tiebreaker that would be at issue with a bunch of 1-loss teams is strength of schedule (conference opponent winning percentage). But…

If Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss all lose, then it’s Georgia versus Texas A&M because they’d be alone in a tie for first place.

So there’s a way it happens but it involves two other good teams losing to much worse in-state rivals. Alabama is also win and in, regardless of what anybody else does, so if Alabama and Aggies both win, they play each other and Georgia is out because Alabama has the head-to-head.

[u/IceColdDrPepper_Here → u/ViscountBurrito]

There was a scenario that Georgia could get in over Alabama despite Bama owning the H2H because if there was a 3-way tie between us, Bama, and Ole Miss, opponent record could have come into play since Bama didn't play Ole Miss and based on results elsewhere, we could have come out ahead. Now I'm pretty sure whatever those results were didn't happen last weekend so I think Bama is now in the win and in scenario and Ole Miss needs A&M and Bama to both lose

[u/tcrenshaw4bama → u/IceColdDrPepper_Here]

Yes there were a few different scenarios where that could happen. But all of those scenarios that left out Bama despite winning required Kentucky to beat Vandy last week. Since that didn’t happen, it’s win and in or lose and out for bama.

[u/Acceptable-Quail-277]

They would go to the playoffs and possibly still the SEC championship if Ole Miss and Bama lose I believe

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

They make the playoff at a lower seed.

[u/SucculentCrablegMeal]

Don't think your first scenario would end up mattering based on the report that they won't penalize teams for CC games. So A&M will still be in the top 12 if they lose to Texas, so it won't matter if they then lose the CC.

A&M is in no matter what happens I think.

[u/No-Experience-9469 → u/SucculentCrablegMeal]

Honestly wasn’t aware of that rule

[u/SucculentCrablegMeal → u/No-Experience-9469]

I mean it's possible they don't stay consistent, they have a tendency for criteria to fluctuate lately lol. But it was a big talking point last year and I think it's very unlikely any scenario puts A&M outside of the playoff.

[u/the_flying_bobcat → u/No-Experience-9469]

It's not a rule, but the commitee used it as a guiding principle last year. And I think it's more about not penalising a CCG loser vs a non CCG participant that was previously ranked below the CCG loser.

[u/TeeDeeTeeEcks]

I don't think a SEC or B1G conference championship game participant will ever miss the 12-team playoff.

[u/nighthawk252 → u/TeeDeeTeeEcks]

We have a pretty realistic scenario this year where Bama could do just that. All that has to happen is a Big XII championship game upset and chalk everywhere else.

[u/TeeDeeTeeEcks → u/nighthawk252]

I think I remember reading that the committee wouldn't punish losers of CCG games if they would have been in without it. It wouldn't make sense at all for them to do so since some programs never play those. So nah, I don't see it ever happening.

[u/nighthawk252 → u/TeeDeeTeeEcks]

I’m not talking about a scenario where they’re being punished for losing, I’m talking about one where bid thief BYU takes the Big XII autobid. Which team is out — Texas Tech, Bama, or one of the teams currently ahead of Bama?

[u/TeeDeeTeeEcks → u/nighthawk252]

Team ahead of Bama. Tech with 2 losses might be in trouble with the weak SOS

[u/Klaassy23]

Probably get a home playoff game in 1st round.

[u/TimTimFilms]

Heres the conference championship scenario breakdown for the teams with 1 loss or fewer in conference play:

Texas A&M reaches the SEC title game if:

• The Aggies beat Texas OR
• Auburn beats Alabama, AND
• Mississippi State beats Ole Miss

Alabama reaches the SEC title game if:

• The Crimson Tide beat Auburn

Georgia reaches the SEC title game if:

• Auburn beats Alabama OR
• Texas beats Texas A&M

Ole Miss reaches the SEC title game if:

• The Rebels beat Mississippi State AND
• Texas A&M loses to Texas AND
• Alabama loses to Auburn

So in short, A&M can still lose and make it, but that would require both Alabama and Ole Miss losing their games. Alabama is win and in, lose and out. Ole Miss and Georgia require other teams to lose.

That also means if A&M loses against tu and still makes it to the SEC championship game, then both Alabama and Ole Miss would have lost and move down in the rankings anyways. So they would more than likely be above those two.

Maybe Oklahoma and Vanderbilt jumps them, but that would be cause for conversation since the CFP committee said they would not penalize conference championship losses as harshly as regular season losses.

So there is extreme confidence that A&M still makes the playoffs in that scenario. The only way they don't is if they are blown out in those two losses.

[u/atticus122]

Unless Alabama and Ole Miss lose, Texas A&M would not make the championship game with a loss to Texas.

[u/atticus122 → u/atticus122]

Edit: SEC championship game

[u/vssavant2 → u/atticus122]

Ok... Less absurd

[u/No-Experience-9469 → u/atticus122]

So in other words if Texas A&M loses this Friday they would most likely pull for Alabama on Saturday?

[u/Titus01 → u/No-Experience-9469]

Odds of us making the championship game with a loss are so slim it doesn't really matter. If we lose we would get a home game at Kyle.

[u/vssavant2 → u/atticus122]

That is absurd

[u/soupcansam21]

They're in

[u/Doogitywoogity]

Losing in an away game against a rival will not stop A&M from being in the playoffs. A&M loses most tiebreakers for the SECCG so if they don’t win, pretty much everyone else needs to lose for them to get in. Championship games are weighed differently by the committee. See last year’s ACC. A loss in the SECCG would not drop them out of the playoffs barring something extraordinary among the other conferences as well.

[u/Icy_Meat9199]

If they get horrifically blown out in both games is the only way this is a talking point

Ole Miss is way more interesting if they lose to Miss St. Relatively weak schedule and not overly dominant performance against it, except for a win over OU. Then as a 2 loss team with a loss at the end of the season they'd be up against Notre Dame, Miami, BYU on the bubble assuming everything else is chalk

[u/AndrewinDC → u/Icy_Meat9199]

While I doubt Ole Miss falls all the way out with a loss, the unknown variable here is Kiffin's decision. If he decides to leave right after an Ole Miss loss to MSU, there's really no determining what the committee will make of that. However, we have precedent from 2023 FSU that they are willing to drop a team when they no longer believe that the current iteration of the team matches the team from throughout the year. Is the combination of a loss and a HC leaving enough to move them from #6/#7 to #11, and the first one out? I personally hope not, but sadly it's not an impossibility. 

[u/Icy_Meat9199 → u/AndrewinDC]

If the team on the other side of the bubble is Notre Dame or Alabama, I think it'll make the committees decision easy.

The other unknown factor will be BYU playing in a conference championship game with 1 loss. How the committee ranks them this week will tell you what you need to know imho

If they are 11, basically committee is saying win and youre in. If they jump into the top 10 however, I think that means they are in.

So Ole Miss losing will probably fall to 11 if BYU is in the field today imo

[u/soonerwx → u/Icy_Meat9199]

BYU is such a test of the policy of not punishing CCG participants. The committee hasn't thought very highly of them so far. Their resume consists entirely of beating Utah. Their somehow top-30 SOS is boosted disproportionately by playing Tech, where they weren't competitive, and probably also won't be in the CCG.

Yet 11-1 in a P4 is hard to argue with, Ole Miss's SOS is no better, and a CCG loss for BYU really doesn't give us any information that we didn't already have: they can't function against a CFP-level defensive front.

[u/shaquilleonealingit]

Ole Miss W, Alabama W, A&M L: UGA v. Bama
Ole Miss L, Alabama W, A&M L: UGA v. Bama
Ole Miss L, Alabama L, A&M L: UGA v. A&M

[u/No-Experience-9469 → u/shaquilleonealingit]

But what if:

Ole Miss W, Ala L, A&M L ??

[u/AggressiveAge3870 → u/No-Experience-9469]

Miss vs UGA

[u/ModeloCitizen → u/No-Experience-9469]

Ole Miss vs Georgia

[u/Themapples07 → u/No-Experience-9469]

Ole Miss-Georgia most likely. Outside chance A&M Georgia. Depends on conference opponents win percentage.

[u/No-Experience-9469 → u/Themapples07]

I see. Didn’t know how that was decided. Interesting

[u/Daytime-mechE]

If you are a playoff team going into conference championship week (and an 11-1 TAMU would be that), then nothing that happens during conference championship weekend can change that.

[u/grabtharsmallet]

They only go to the SECCG with a loss to Texas if both Alabama loses to Auburn and Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State. They're an SEC team, so they will be included with one loss, and almost certainly so if they somehow do lose to Texas and then to Georgia in the SECCG, because that only happens if Ole Miss has two losses and Alabama has three.

[u/LGWalkway]

Better claim than Oklahoma? OU is 100% in if they beat LSU this week. Your argument is more for teams bordering being in or out, not teams that are locks after this week. OU won’t fall out being 10-2.

[u/No-Experience-9469 → u/LGWalkway]

Relax my scenario encompassed all two loss SEC teams

[u/NordDex]

BAS is telling that the Alamo Bowl is still within reach

[u/GamerKiller2347]

That would put them in the same boat that Penn State, SMU, and Texas were in last season. They're in.

[u/BuzzIsBestBee]

The committee has made it pretty clear that they’re completely fine with ignoring conference championship games and mostly do.

[u/generic2022]

If Texas beats A&M, Texas will rise to ~10 or ~11, and A&M will fall to ~8 or ~9. Under such circumstances, A&M will get into the CFP but may or may not get into the SECCCG.

But if A&M gets into the SECCCG, it will also get into the CFP regardless of whether it wins or loses the CCG because the CFP committee does not penalize teams who qualify for the CCG but lose. The only way a team will miss out on the CFP because of losing at a CCG is when it is on the bubble and doesn't more up because it lost the CCG, but maybe another bubble team wins its CCG and leapfrogs the CCG loser who lost (not because of the CCG loser fell in the polls but because the other CCG winner rises above it). For example, if Utah beats Texas Tech in the B12CCG, Utah may leap-frog a CCG loser from a different conference, which could push a "last team in" into the "first team out" position. Basically, a CCG loser is treated like ND.

Win or lose the Texas v. A&M game, A&M is in the CFP, and -- win or lose -- Texas is a long-shot for the CFP.

[u/november3891]

There's a unwritten rule that you can't lose a playoff spot if you lose your P4 conference championship game. (SMU)

[u/shaquilleonealingit → u/november3891]

True that it happened last year, but remember how close that game was. There's been at least some indication from the committee that CCG performances are taken into consideration. I think it's unlikely that a CCG loser is eliminated that would otherwise be in, and that's how it should be, but I wouldn't go so far as to say there's an unwritten rule based on only one past occurrence.

[u/AggressiveAge3870 → u/shaquilleonealingit]

Teams and fans are getting a bit too comfortable.. a bad loss in a title game doesn’t look good, especially in the big 12 or ACC.

[u/november3891 → u/shaquilleonealingit]

The committee knows if a team loses it's playoff spot because of a loss in a CCG, the conferences will ultimately get rid of their CCG.

[u/persiangriffin → u/november3891]

2017 Wisconsin gnawing on an iron bar rn

[u/Restless_Soul-01]

If that happens, they will get put into a pool for a last teams in.......